Early Covid/Flu Season 2023

While driving my girlfriend to urgent care for her bruised foot, I noticed that the Walgreen's parking lot was full. This is unusual for a warm sunny day in mid-September. I thought, there must be a lot of sick people out there to have that many people at Walgreen. When we got to the urgent care, that parking lot was full too. They told my girlfriend that she would have a two hour wait, and that was assuming that nothing more serious came in between now and then. I drove her back home instead of having to sit among the Covid/Flu viruses circulating in the busy waiting area. She has an appointment to see her doctor, but that isn't until the end of the month. 

Meanwhile, I have been suffering from flu-like symptoms for the past 7 days. Knowing that it is extremely difficult to see a doctor is a concern. I don't think the general public is aware of how fast and widespread the Covid/Flu has become. My symptoms started with a 101-degree fever, which lasted for several days. Then a sore throat, followed by a mild cough and runny nose. I did not have a loss of taste or smell. The flavor of some foods was actually enhanced. Fruit tasted sweeter, but salty food was saltier. I felt good enough to do some house cleaning yesterday, but it is easy to get tired and over-heated.

The government doesn't want to have another pandemic shut down, despite a rapidly spreading virus that rivals the early days of the pandemic's first wave. We will have to fend for ourselves this time because too many people complained about their rights being violated last time. The 2023 booster shot is for last year's strain and was not tested on humans. Despite this, CDC is recommending the booster because that is the best we have come up with after 3 years of research. They have a few treatments, but that doesn't do any good if you can't get in to see a doctor. I see more people wearing masks, so some have gotten the word. On Monday, the government announced that they would be offering free Covid test kits. This is a strong sign that the pandemic is back again for another round.

Covid-19 Timeline

On March 11, 2020, after more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries and 4,291 deaths, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. There is an interesting timeline of events related to the pandemic on the CDC Museum COVID-19 Timeline website. Today we have had more than 619 million cases and 6.55 million deaths worldwide. This all happened within 30 months. The virus continues to mutate and reinfect. The medical community is bracing for a resurgence of cases this fall and winter. 

Looking at a map of new cases in the US, shows that the virus is still widespread in every State. Although, the numbers are lower than they have been, the fact that almost every State on the map is in the same color range shows how persistent this virus is. Just when they come out with a new booster shot, a virus mutation appears on the scene, rendering the vaccine less effective. Requirements to travel by plane in the US are confusing. Do you need a document to prove that you are fully vaccinated? Do you need a document showing you have tested negative for the virus? A lack of compliance and reduced safety guidelines would explain why the case map still looks like it does.

Death rates are lower with many counties reporting no deaths in the last week. But a few States still show darker colors, like Oklahoma. It is unusual that one State would report an 850% increase in the death rate. The only explanation is that the report is showing an administrative reporting delay of some kind. States now only report weekly statistics and States like North Dakota are no longer reporting deaths. With the treatments they have now, you are less likely to die from the virus. Although some people develop persistent health issues. 

One recent study found a 50%-80% risk for Alzheimer's disease in the year after COVID-19 for people who are 65 or older. Scientists focused on patients over 65 who made a medical visit during a 15-month period from Feb. 2, 2020, to May 30, 2021. During this period many patients may have delayed getting tested for AD, which could explain the higher percentages. It is still cause for concern now that so many people in the U.S. have had COVID and the long-term consequences are still emerging.

The blue map shows how each State ranks in vaccination rates. It's hard to draw any conclusions from this map unless you go to healthdata.gov and drill deeper into the data for each State. Oklahoma is ranked #37. Wisconsin is in the middle at #24 with Minnesota coming in at #20. States in the northeast make up most of the top 10. 

New Covid subvariants could drive a fresh wave across Europe and North America by the end of November, experts have warned. New Covid variants could fuel winter surge, experts say. These are just a couple of the headlines that have come out recently. Not sure if we should be more afraid of new Covid variants or Putin's nuclear weapons. It may be a while yet before the WHO and the CDC declare an end to the pandemic. When they do, States will lose the generous government funding they need to battle the virus and COVID vaccinations will no longer be free. 

MN COVID Update May 2022

On 5/17/22, state health officials reported 4,581 new COVID cases and six more deaths. Minnesota has seen nearly 1.49 million cases and suffered 12,569 deaths. Wisconsin has seen 1.65 million cases and 14,508 deaths.

The hospitalization rate has climbed into high-risk range with 436 COVID patients in Minnesota hospital beds. Thirty-five of those patients are in intensive care. After a brief down trend in February and March, the rate of new cases has been steadily climbing since April. This pattern is similar across the United States where the total number of deaths has reached one million. In Minnesota, 71% have completed the two-part vaccine series, though just 49% are up to date with their booster shots. 

Allergy season is also upon us at the same time that COVID cases are surging again. You often get a stuffy/runny nose, itchy/red eyes, and a cough with allergies. COVID symptoms generally include a fever and body aches. BA.2 is the dominant strain followed by numerous sub-variants. Staying home when you’re sick, washing your hands and following other public health guidelines are the keys to helping slow the spread of COVID. I would shorten that to "Stay home (if you can) to slow the spread of COVID". 

Many of the positive tests are re-infections. They still haven't found a vaccine that will kill the virus and prevent it from spreading. The number of celebrities and government officials testing positive for COVID is alarming. This is happening because people have returned to life as normal and are gathering in crowds and no longer wearing masks. A third round of free COVID test kits is available. Households in the U.S. will be eligible to order eight additional test kits from the government website COVIDTests.gov. When clicking on the link to order, visitors are redirected to a U.S. Postal Service website to complete the order.

MN Covid-19 Update Jan 22, 2022

Despite all of the vaccinations and precautions the pandemic is still going strong after 2 years. The number of infections in Minnesota has doubled in the last 6 months. The chart above shows the trend line going well past the spike seen last December. Minnesota now has 1,216,874 confirmed cases and 11,291 deaths from the virus.

The USA leads the world with 70,130,650 infections and 864,182 deaths. The next country on the list is India with 38,903,731 infections and 488,884 deaths. How is it possible that a country with 4 times the population of the United States has half as many infections and deaths from the pandemic? The recent spike in the number of infections is causing large numbers of workers to call in sick for work. This is causing a slowdown in production and delivery of goods and services. Businesses have had to increase wages in the past year to comply with increased minimum wage requirements and to retain workers. To make up for lower anticipated profits, companies have raised prices over and above what is necessary to cover the wage increases. Now, workers want even higher wages to cover the increased cost of everything.

The Fed plans on increasing interest rates this year to reduce inflation. This plus the pandemic, the economic problems in China, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing the stock market to drop faster than anyone anticipated. The Fed Funds rate has been at .25% since the pandemic started two years ago. This means that money will cost more to borrow once they start raising the rate. By the end of 2022, the rate is projected to reach 1.00%. This is only an estimate, it could be slightly higher or lower. The Nasdaq has reacted by dropping 11% and the DOW is down over 4% in the first 3 weeks of January. My investments, which currently have 41% in stocks, are down 4%. That may not sound like much, but it is enough to cover the average price of a new car in 2022. 

Herd immunity and COVID-19

The US Army has been working on a Covid vaccine for the past two years that they claim will be effective against all COVID and SARS variants. The new vaccine still needs to undergo phase 2 and 3 trials and there is no information about how many shots are needed. The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine is a two-shot regimen. After six months they are recommending a third "booster" shot for anyone who received Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson/Janssen COVID-19 vaccines.

It appears that vaccinated people are helping spread the virus. There are many reports of fully vaccinated people catching the virus. Since they don't have severe symptoms, they risk spreading the virus to others, if they go without a mask. Early on in the pandemic it was shown that in order for masks to be effective, everyone had to wear one. Most vaccinated people are no longer following this precaution.

Israel is now recommending a fourth Covid-19 dose vaccine for people 60 and over and medical workers. In just one month, the Omicron variant has taken over Delta to become the predominant strain. Wisconsin is 61.5% fully vaccinated and Minnesota is at 65%. Overall, the USA is 61.6% vaccinated. With 73.2% of the population having at least one shot, there are about 90 million who are unvaccinated. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population (more than 200 million people) would have to be vaccinated or recover from COVID-19 to halt the pandemic. 

The U.S. has reported 51.3 million cases so far. This is about 16% of the population. So, if 77.6% of the population has either been vaccinated or had Covid, why haven't we reached heard immunity yet? One problem is that they don't know how long the current vaccines will protect you. And the fact that you can be reinfected and become a carrier after being vaccinated doesn't help. Each new strain seems like we are starting over. A one dose vaccine that is effective against all current and future variants is what we really need.

November COVID Update - 10K Deaths in Wisconsin

 As of November 2021, Wisconsin is reporting over 10,000 deaths from the COVID pandemic. That is equivalent to the population of my hometown of Marinette. Minnesota is reporting 9600 and will reach the 10k milestone before the end of the year. Compared to States with larger populations, that may seem like a small number. California and Texas report over 74,000 deaths each. Wisconsin is also reporting 986K total cases. With an average of 3200 new cases per day, Wisconsin will reach one million cases within a week. Wisconsin and Minnesota are similar in size with populations of just under 6 million. That means that 1 in every 6 people you see has had COVID in the past 2 years.

Now, there is yet another strain of the virus that we have to worry about. As more people get sick and the vaccine loses its edge, it is unavoidable that we will see more strains appearing next year. They are using the Greek alphabet to name the mutations. The latest one is Omicron, which means they only have nine Greek letters left before they have to come up with a different naming convention. Every few months we hear about a new strain of the virus, which is more contagious than the last. Well, this isn't entirely true. There have been eight variations after the Delta strain that we never heard about. Mainly, because there wasn't a significant mutation like they found in the Omicron variant. They also skipped over Nu and Xi and went straight to Omicron.

The stock market has reflected the uncertainty by dropping by about 6% in the past month. One day the DOW drops by 600 points and the next it gains 300 points. The market is now back to where it was in September. My investments are down about 2.3% from the high point on November 8th, 2021. It's a little early to calculate year end results. The market could drop another 6% before the end of the year, if the latest virus strain takes hold and they decide to implement lockdowns. This might slow inflation but would be a major setback for the economy. Meanwhile, State governors have started using the National Guard to help alleviate staffing shortages at hospitals and care facilities. Hospitals across the country report that they’re at or near capacity, with intensive care and pediatric beds in short supply.

COVID Update - October 2021

 

As of this October 2021, just over 60% of the US population has been fully vaccinated. States like Minnesota and Wisconsin are still seeing an average of 2800+ new infections per day. The graph for MN is above. The graph for WI looks very similar. COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases in Minnesota are at 1.44%, which means that 98.56% of new cases are appearing in unvaccinated people.

My girlfriend was diagnosed with a case of pericarditis. Pericarditis is inflammation of the pericardium, a sac-like structure with two thin layers of tissue that surround the heart. Her doctor told her that a side effect of the COVID vaccine is that it can cause pericarditis in some patients. Since she was recently diagnosed with this condition, her doctor recommended that she not get vaccinated. Because of this we rarely leave our home and wear a mask when other people are around. My girlfriend's daughter, who is in the healthcare profession, refused the vaccine and has claimed an exemption based on her religious beliefs. She is not a very religious person, but she does harbor some paranoid anti-establishment beliefs. (Most likely a result of her military service.) Never the less, it is discouraging to hear someone express negative views of a scientifically proven vaccine. 

Stories are in the news about workers quitting their jobs rather than getting vaccinated. These are people who are being forced to make the choice by government mandate. Religious exemptions are allowed in 44 States in the USA. New York, California, Mississippi, Maine, and West Virginia do not allow non-medical exemptions. Medical exemptions are allowed in any State. Getting the last 40% vaccinated is going to be a big challenge. Yesterday the governor of  Minnesota announced a new incentive program to get kids vaccinated. Kids ages 12 to 17 are eligible for a $200 reward, if they start and finish their COVID-19 vaccine series between Oct. 18 and Nov. 30. They also have a chance to win one of five $100,000 scholarships. About half of Minnesota's 12-15 population is fully vaccinated against the virus and about 60% of 16 and 17-year-olds are fully vaccinated. They will need a similar program for 18+ year olds, if they want to get over 70% of adults vaccinated.

A Third COVID Shot?

 It's not even fall yet and the number of new Covid infections is increasing faster and earlier than last fall. As another round of Covid sweeps across the country, the experts are suggesting a third dose of vaccine. This version of the virus they claim is much more contagious than previous strains. You also have to keep in mind that last year at this time we were in lockdown. Now, stores and restaurants are open and people are attending shows and concerts. As of today, 52% of the population has received 2 doses of vaccine. 

Will another shot make a difference if 40% of the population hasn't had any vaccine yet? Maybe for people who have weak immune systems. I have read several news reports about vaccinated people getting infected with the delta strain. The vaccine needs to be re-formulated to do a better job of resisting the latest strain. They need to quickly adjust the vaccine to respond to mutations. If not, the next mutation could not only infect us easier, but also kill us faster too. 

The only thing that will slow the infection rate (other than 100% vaccination) is another shutdown. But, after seeing how the last shutdown affected our economy, it will be a difficult decision. The number of patients in the hospital will most likely be the determining factor. Southern States, with lower vaccination rates, are seeing rapid increases in hospital admissions. If the rate of hospitalizations increases in other parts of the country, another shutdown will be the only option to quickly slow the rate of transmission. The government really can't afford to hand us more money, if the economy shuts down again. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

COVID Vaccine Rollout

 As of April 15, 2021 about 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. But, reports show that COVID infections are again on an uptrend in many States. On April 15th, Minnesota reported 2729 new cases and Wisconsin reported 1084. Minnesota has 552k cases and 7073 deaths and is starting to catch up to Wisconsin's 650k cases and 7412 deaths. The vaccine distribution has been fairly balanced with each State showing a vaccination rate that is within a few percent of each other (23% - 27%). At some point, the percent of people who want to be vaccinated will max out. I estimate that number will be around 60%, unless they make it mandatory or offer some kind of incentive to the people who are on the fence about getting the shot.

In the County where I live the population is around 150k. The number of COVID cases reported thus far is 15,865 and 117 deaths. That means roughly 1 in 10 residents have gotten sick and 1 in 135 have died from it. You could speculate that since 10% have recovered from it and 25% have been vaccinated that 35% of the population is safe. Unfortunately, experts say that you can get sick again after you have had it and you can also get sick after you get vaccinated. Although, second infections are relatively rare and getting sick after a vaccination is in the single digit percent range.

How soon can we stop wearing masks? I wouldn't expect to see States going back to a voluntary mask rule until the 7 day average for all States drops below 1000. Currently, we are at  70,000 new infections per day and rising. If vaccinations continue at the current rate and no vaccine resistant variants pop up, it will be at least another 6 to 9 months before we see the infection rate start trending to a level that would allow people to get back to normal. Going forward, it will be common to see people wearing masks in public in the US. In the past, it was only common to see this in foreign countries with large populations. Now that we know how fast a virus can spread, it will be years before we fully understand how this happened.

End of Pandemic Signs

 As of March 22, 2021, twenty five percent of  US adults have received at least one COVID vaccine shot. States are now allowing more people into bars, restaurants, churches, movie theaters, and health clubs. The first sign I noticed that we are getting back to normal is that mass shootings have resumed. Its been over a year since I recall hearing about any in the news. Now, we are averaging one or two per week since the beginning of March. President Biden today said he would do everything in his power to keep Americans safe. He pushed a pair of gun reforms, including a universal background check measure, and a ban on high-capacity magazines and assault weapons. The call for gun reform didn't come up when eight Asian-Americans were killed in Atlanta. The response focused on how to stop Asian hate crimes. Then, when the Colorado incident occurred, it was like wait a minute, didn't we have some gun control laws in the works before this pandemic started? 

For a someone who is mentally unstable, seeing people starting to gather again in larger groups is probably too hard to resist. Colorado requires a permit for concealed carry of a handgun. It must have happened fast, because no one had time to get their guns out. The first law enforcement officer that arrived wasn't able to stop the gunman and lost his life. They haven't found a motive yet, but the 21 year old shooter has an Arab sounding name. Hopefully he isn't part of a terrorism group. We don't need that non-sense starting up again. We have our own problems. Now that the weather is getting nice again, we can look forward to protests against racial profiling and hear how unequal everyone is. Live court room coverage of the Derek Chauvin trial starts on March 29. He's the ex-cop accused of causing the death of a 46-year-old black man in Minneapolis last year. The Minnesota National Guard will be part of a coordinated effort among city, county and state law enforcement officials during the trial. The Minneapolis City Council already approved a $27 million civil settlement for the family. Hopefully this will keep the protests from getting out of hand. 

WI Passes MN in Covid Deaths

For most of the pandemic, Wisconsin has been reporting a higher number of Covid infections and a lower number of virus related deaths than Minnesota. The number of tests per 100K people is about the same, so it was unusual that with more cases, why did Wisconsin have fewer deaths? With these two States being right next to each other, the death rate should be about the same. That was up until this past week. Wisconsin now reports a larger number of deaths. 

Here are the numbers from Jan. 23, 2021:

• Minnesota: 454K Cases    6,131 Deaths    Positive Test Rate 4.7%    Death Rate 1.35%
• Wisconsin: 580K Cases    6,187 Deaths    Positive Test Rate 7.0%    Death Rate 1.07%

You could conclude that you are more likely to get Covid in Wisconsin, but less likely to die from it. Of course there is always more to the stats than that. Each state has different reporting and testing procedures and these numbers don't show which age groups are represented. You would need to drill down further to find a correlation. The good news is that the number of infections in both Minnesota and Wisconsin are trending down compared to the spike in November. Its going to be a while before enough people get vaccinated to see the number of new cases drop to safe levels. Vaccine is in short supply and is hard to get right now. Anyone under 60 years of age, who isn't a teacher, government official, or a healthcare worker, may have to wait until June or July, at the earliest, to get their shot.

4039 New COVID Cases in One Day!

On October 15, 2020 Wisconsin reported 4039 new COVID cases in one day. The trend is moving higher in Minnesota as well, but the highest single day number has only been 1516 by comparison. Yahoo News reports that almost all of Wisconsin is classified as a COVID 'hot spot'. Other states with trouble areas include Wisconsin’s neighbors, Minnesota and Illinois, as well as Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina. The graph shows an uptrend starting in early September, which coincides with the start of the fall school season. 

My girlfriend had surgery on her knee on Oct. 12th and has been in the hospital for 5 days trying to recover from that. Before she was allowed to undergo surgery I had to take her to a COVID testing site that was about a 30 minute drive away from our home. They were only taking people who had an appointment. We arrived about 15 minutes ahead of schedule with a line of about 6 or 7 cars ahead of us. After about 5 minutes there were already 6 cars behind us. Everyone was waiting to get up to a big drive through tent that the clinic had setup in the parking lot. It was a little surreal and reminded me of a scene from a movie about a pandemic. Its a good thing we came early because it took 15 minutes to work our way up to the tent. They allowed 2 vehicles to enter the tent at a time. A nurse in a white gown with a mask and clear plastic face shield instructed us to turn off the engine. There were 3 nurses to assist each vehicle that entered the tent. After the customary ID check and appointment verification, a cotton swab was inserted deep into my girlfriend's nose. They told her when the results would be available and wished us good luck. As I drove away I'm thinking, this is one time where you want a negative result to be lucky. The result was negative, but the pain from the operation has not subsided. With more people going to the hospital for COVID treatment, each day spent in the hospital, adds to the chance of getting the virus. I have felt safe visiting her room, but do not enjoy the 1/4 mile walk from the nearest parking lot to get there.

Regarding my last post about being Geo-Blocked by my bank, the block did finally get resolved about a day after I made my blog post. I haven't seen any trouble since then and no explanation was ever provided by the bank.

COVID-19 cases continue climb in US

The number of COVID-19 cases continues to climb in the United States. As of July 18, 2020 the total is 3.68 million with a record 75,821 new cases reported yesterday. So far, just over 1% of the population has been infected and there have been 141,000 deaths. That's an average death rate of about 1000 per day.

Even though the infection rate has increased, the death rate has stayed about the same. I suspect this is because doctors have found ways to save more people. Still, this virus is going to be around for a while and we are far from a point were we can relax our efforts to control the spread.

In the charts on the left you can see the new cases in the US. Below that is an overlay of Minnesota and Wisconsin. If the trend continues, Wisconsin will catch up to Minnesota very soon. Wisconsin shows 47% fewer deaths than Minnesota. That is most likely because of the higher infection rate that Minnesota had in May. The numbers in these two states are far better than what we see in California, Texas, and Florida. These states reported over 36,000 new cases and 432 dead in just one day on 7/17/20.

Time to Move to Australia

As of June 27th 2020, the US has 2.56 million confirmed cases of COVID19 with 127,000 deaths. In comparison, Australia has 7,593 confirmed cases and 104 deaths. Back in late March Australia had a spike in reported cases. But since then, whatever measures they put in place seems to be working. One thing going in Australia's favor is that they have a much smaller population. 25 million compared to the US, which has 328 million. I'm sure Australia has problems, just like every other country these days, but with the low number of virus cases and all of the crazy racial stuff going on in the US, maybe it's time to consider moving to a safer country.

In the past few weeks, several companies have decided to rename products because they are now considered to be "racially insensitive". The list includes Eskimo Pie, Aunt Jemima, Uncle Ben's, Cream of Wheat, and anything that includes the words "white", or "master", or which has in any way ever been associated with slavery. They are renaming buildings, schools, parks, lakes, streets, and taking down monuments. I can't imagine what will be next? Are white people who wear a black mask to protect themselves from getting sick going to be considered "racially insensitive"? I'm afraid to leave the house because someone might get offended. I would probably get lost anyway, because everything has been renamed. In States where businesses have started to open, there has been a noticeable spike in the number of COVID cases. Just another reason not to leave the house. No worries, mate!

Mask Logic

No one likes wearing a mask. They make it harder to breath, they make your glasses fog up, and they cover facial expressions. With that said, many businesses won't even let you in the door without one. Our CDC recommends a cloth mask for the general public. But, the chart on the left shows that a cloth mask provides zero protection against a virus particle. An N95 mask gives much better protection. So, why is the CDC recommending a cloth mask? This is where mask logic comes into play. It has to do with reducing the number of virus particles leaked into the air. A carrier who coughs while wearing a cloth mask can still release up to 90% of the virus into the air, but the mask also reduces the velocity of the cough, thus reducing the area of contamination. A non-infected person wearing a cloth mask would further reduce the chance of transmission by 60%. These numbers are not reassuring to anyone who is trying to stay safe. The final part of the formula is social distancing. With each person wearing a mask and keeping a safe distance apart, the transmission probability rate drops into the single digits. I would still feel safer wearing a N95 certified mask, especially with the number of people I see who are not wearing a mask and not social distancing. Some people won't follow recommendations from someone in a position of authority, no matter how much logic is behind it.

The riots have subsided for now, at least in Minneapolis. With the pandemic and millions of people out of work and school, it was a riot waiting for an excuse to happen. The ideas being discussed in the aftermath are interesting to follow. Catch phrases like "defund the police" and "(insert color here) lives matter" and "I can't breath!" sum up the frustration. Pandemic and protests will be the legacy of 2020.

Amazon Shopping List #2

Another month has past and its time to take another look at my Amazon Shopping list. As of June 1, 2020, the total price for all of the items on my list is $68.71. Only 10 out of 20 items on the list that are available to purchase. One item is no longer available. There was a price increase on 4 items and a price decrease on 4 items. It would cost $36.49 to buy one each of the available items. This is a slight improvement over last month, when only 7 of 10 items were available. I have noticed that the availability of items changes daily. But, there never seems to be more than 10 items available each day I look at the list. I would need to track the available items each day to determine which day of the week would be best to place an order. People probably do most of their shopping on the weekends, so the middle of the week may have more items available. But, it also depends on Amazon's restocking schedule. Since I have a variety of pantry items, I would need to place several minimum orders each month in order to get more of the items on my list. I will check the status one more time next month.

Regarding the protests this past week in Minneapolis, the autopsy showed no signs of traumatic asphyxia or strangulation. They didn't say what intoxicants were in his system. It will be several weeks before that report comes out. The family is set to announce findings of an independent autopsy on Monday June 1st, 2020. It will be interesting to see how the two autopsy reports differ. The police need a better way of handling someone who is potentially intoxicated and shows signs of resisting arrest. Physical force and non lethal weapons have the potential to cause death, if there are underlying health conditions. Maybe people need to be reminded how to act when they encounter law enforcement. We need ideas and solutions not protests.

100K Dead in USA from COVID

The 100K milestone will be reached by the end of May 2020. It only took 3 months to get to this number, which is higher than any other country. As of today the John Hopkins COVID-19 tracking website shows a 5 day uptrend in new cases for the US. All other countries and trending down. It remains to be seen how relaxing lockdown rules will affect the infection rate. News reports this weekend showed scenes of people not wearing masks and ignoring social distancing guidelines. Even people who try to be safe can make mistakes by touching their face after they remove their mask. Or, they touch something that was just handled by another person, or they stop to talk to someone in a store. Social habits are had to change.

The death rate from the flu is about 1%. For COVID, the rate is 3.4%. Minnesota is reporting 19,845 confirmed cases with 852 dead and Wisconsin reports 14,877 confirmed with 507 dead. If you apply a 3.4% death rate, the number of confirmed cases in Minnesota should be around 25,000. Wisconsin has been in the news lately because the state supreme court ruled against the governor's stay-at-home order. The governor basically told everyone to do whatever they wanted after that. I expect Wisconsin will soon catch up to Minnesota's number of confirmed cases because of that. Locally, the county I live in has 259 confirmed and 1 death for a population of 150K. Businesses are starting to call people back to work at restaurants and casinos. Despite all of the safety precautions, I am worried that my girlfriend will get infected and bring it home with her, like she did with the flu back in March. I mainly follow these numbers from a financial perspective. If confirmed cases increase, as I expect they will in the next few weeks, it may be wise to hedge your investments by moving into cash or bonds until we start to see a real reduction in confirmed cases.

Amazon Shopping List

It's been about 6 weeks since I posted my experience with Amazon Pantry during the early days of the pandemic. It wasn't very good. So, I decided to take my own advice and created a shopping list of Amazon Pantry items that I would consider buying (if they were available). My list consists of 20 items. As of April 30th, the total price for all of the items on my list was $69.34. Unfortunately, only 7 out of the 20 items are currently available. At the end of each month, I'm going to check the list again to see if prices have changed and how many items are available. This should tell me if  things are improving or getting worse at Amazon.

Amazon has one of their huge distribution centers in my city. I have read several news reports about employees walking off the job because they feel that Amazon isn't doing enough to protect their health. Amazon disclosed that 3 workers had tested positive for the virus at the facility near me. I suspect the number infected is larger than that, considering how easily the virus is spread, and the number of people working there (about a thousand). Similar outbreaks at meat packing plants around the country have also been in the news lately. This adds to the fear of anyone who works in close proximity to others. This all adds stress to our supply chain. Reading about farmers who have to dump milk or euthanize livestock and poultry because they can't find anyone to process their product is a breakdown in a food supply chain that has been over optimized. The most recent report shows 28 million people out of work. This week on the news, I saw lines of cars at drive-thru food banks. These are like a modern version of the soup lines from the 1930's. Things looked a little better at the grocery store this week. We found most of the items we were looking for. We even found some toilet paper, although the choices were few, and the prices are high.

Past Pandemics

I recently watched an interesting documentary on YouTube about the 1918 Spanish flu. It gives a chilling account of the worst pandemic in modern history. It infected about one-third of the world's population and caused 50 million deaths. In the United States, it killed an estimated 675,000 people out of a population of 105 million. Today the US population is three times larger, but we now have a better understanding about how a virus spreads. Back in 1918 the first world war was going on and that played a big part in how fast the virus spread throughout the world. Newsreel footage shows people wearing masks and cities in lockdown, a similar response to what we are seeing now with the current COVID-19 outbreak.

One of my earliest childhood memories is being in bed with the flu. It was around 1968 when the H3N2 influenza virus emerged, resulting in roughly 100,000 deaths in the US. I still remember the fever it caused and how long it took to feel normal again. I've had the flu several times since then, but that was one of the worst. The respiratory symptoms of the current virus are reason enough to stay home. I expect that with all of the people staying home, there will be a baby boom in December. Once the pandemic has subsided, there is a risk that it will mutate and restart, just as it did several times in 1918. Scientists today are mapping the virus genome and have already discovered mutations. This doesn't mean the next wave will be worse, just that we will not be able to let our guard down for a while. Some of us I'm sure will be afraid to come in contact with other people and will be avoiding crowds long after the danger has past.